In a new commentary Jason Bordoff and Richard Nephew examine what reimposing sanctions on Iran would mean for oil markets. They first assess the likelihood that sanctions reimposition would pull large volumes of Iranian oil off the market and then what impact that would have on oil markets and how the possibility of reimposition affects Iran’s negotiating posture within OPEC.
Program director Richard Nephew explores what would happen should President-elect Trump attempt to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal in a new commentary. Nephew outlines and addresses three key questions that face the next Administration: Can the future president get more from Iran as part of a negotiated arrangement?; How much more does he need to get to declare success?; What will he risk in order to get it?
Writing in The Hill, Richard Nephew explains the history and reality of the so-called “ransom payment” made to Iran by the United States in January 2016 of $400 million, which is now the subject of such controversy.
“I’m not panicked it’s going to fall apart,” said Richard Nephew, who headed the U.S. sanctions team in negotiations until early last year. “But if we don’t see things start to improve inside Iran, it will be much more difficult for Rouhani to stay on course.”
One year ago, the United States and its partners concluded their negotiations with Iran on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement intended to reduce the threat from Iran's nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief. Implementation of the agreement began in January 2016. Richard Nephew, program director for economic statecraft, sanctions and energy markets at the Center on Global Energy Policy, who was the lead sanctions negotiator for the United States from 2013-2014, has written a report on six months' implementation of the nuclear deal, particularly with respect to sanctions relief. He concludes that sanctions relief has been stalled as much by concerns over residual sanctions as domestic regulatory factors and low oil prices globally.