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This year’s Conference of the Parties (COP-29) broke new ground with the Baku Initiative for Climate Finance, Investment, and Trade (BICFIT)—the first high-profile COP initiative to place trade...
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Please join the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs for a special webinar "Can AI Help Reduce Emissions of...
External Publications by Christof Rühl • May 02, 2022
Abstract
The world is witnessing an unprecedented episode of ‘economic warfare’, with more than 30% of global GDP (the G7’s share) pitched against 11% of global energy production (Russia’s share). This paper analyzes oil sanctions against Russia. It shows that the risk of tighter sanctions backfiring, and harming the economies of the sanctioning countries, is manageable. In terms of sanction design, sanctions and embargo announcements have so far been decentralized and voluntary. In previous episodes, sanctions have been enforced, and breaching them was punished. The paper asks whether the unilateral or the mandated model will be more successful in maximizing damage to Russia’s energy revenues, while minimizing economic damage to the sanctioning alliance. Given the scale of Russia’s supplies, a gradual approach is called for. The optimal strategy uses unilateral sanction picking as long as Russian energy exports are large enough to pose a systemic threat; and sanction enforcement thereafter.
China’s demand for oil, long an important driver of global oil demand growth, slowed dramatically during January–September 2024. Between 2000 and 2023, China accounted for 50 percent of...
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) commenced its monetary easing cycle on Wednesday with an aggressive 50 basis points policy rate cut. The United States is not alone in...
As new industries are emerging to support the energy transition, anti-corruption sanctions are an important part of the international effort to ensure that the global economy operates on...
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External Publications by Christof Rühl • May 02, 2022