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Testimonies & Speeches by Antoine Halff • January 19, 2016
Antoine Halff testified before the US Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources at a hearing to examine the near-term outlook for energy and commodity markets. His conclusion is below and the full written remarks can be found here (PDF).
Conclusion: A new era of heightened volatility?
In summary, the oil market is facing unprecedented headwinds, which have resulted in steep and, for the industry, highly challenging price declines. While supply growth is already slowing in the face of shale oil setbacks, oversupply and inventory builds continue amid relatively sluggish demand growth. Downward pressures on oil prices will persist until the market reaches an inflection point and inventories decline.
But the factors that today incentivize producers to boost output at the expense of longer-term investment will inevitably undermine future production. The very rise of the shale oil industry, with its unique cost structure and short business cycle, undermines longer-term investment in high-cost conventional supply. The ability of the shale industry to ramp back production in a rebound is untested, however, and the market might find out when prices finally recover that its capacity has been durably degraded. In a best-case scenario, the market ought to brace itself for a period of heightened volatility, albeit perhaps in a relatively narrow band, if the shale oil industry manages to function as an effective swing producer. Alternatively, low prices today may set the stage for significant supply shortfalls tomorrow.
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Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55× in the past decade (2014–2024) and 6× since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle–grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs. Electric vehicles are increasingly adopted in the USA, with concurrent expansion of charging infrastructure and electricity demand. This Review details these trends and discusses their drivers and broader implications.
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Testimonies & Speeches by Antoine Halff • January 19, 2016