Big banks predict catastrophic warming, with profit potential
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and an international banking group have quietly concluded that climate change will likely exceed the Paris Agreement's 2 degree
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Reports by Johannes Urpelainen • October 30, 2015
Download and read the study here (PDF)
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The decline in oil prices that began in the middle of 2014 presents an opportunity for governments to reform their fuel subsidies. Fossil fuel subsidies that artificially lower consumer prices are estimated to cost governments around the globe approximately $500 billion per year. These subsidies have a host of negative effects on an economy—encouraging wasteful consumption, creating a large fiscal burden on developing country budgets, disproportionately benefiting wealthier households, and increasing the health and environmental costs associated with fossil fuel use. Therefore, reforms to these subsidies can be good for the economy and the environment. Recent reforms by Indonesia and Malaysia illustrate that governments can capitalize on lower prices and act swiftly to remove fuel subsidies. While these governments have changed the regulated prices of fuels before, some of their recent reforms have removed fuel subsidy mechanisms altogether.
In a new paper for the Center on Global Energy Policy, Dr. Johannes Urpelainen, Associate Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a Faculty Affiliate at the Center, and his co-authors examine the impact of low oil prices on global fuel subsidies across a number of dimensions. First, the paper explains the benefits of fuel subsidy removal and how low oil prices can enable action. Second, it summarizes key lessons about political obstacles to reform based on original research and the existing literature. Finally, it offers action-oriented recommendations for national and international policymakers, as well as social scientists. The key findings of the paper are below and the full study is available here (PDF).
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Key Findings:
Energy abundance isn't a climate strategy—it delays clean energy progress, harms global cooperation, and repeats past policy mistakes.
President Donald Trump has made energy a clear focus for his second term in the White House. Having campaigned on an “America First” platform that highlighted domestic fossil-fuel growth, the reversal of climate policies and clean energy incentives advanced by the Biden administration, and substantial tariffs on key US trading partners, he declared an “energy emergency” on his first day in office.
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Reports by Johannes Urpelainen • October 30, 2015