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Climate Change

A Near-Term to Net Zero Alternative to the Social Cost of Carbon for Setting Carbon Prices

External Publications by Noah Kaufman & Peter Marsters • August 17, 2020

Abstract

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO2 prices. Here we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO2 emission target, prices are US$34 to US$64 per metric ton in 2025 and US$77 to US$124 in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

Our Work

Relevant
Publications

Regulatory Progress for Project-Based Carbon Credit Markets: Pre-COP30 Roundtable Summary

On November 6, 2025, in the lead-up to the annual UN Conference of the Parties (COP30), the Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) at Columbia University SIPA convened a roundtable on project-based carbon credit markets (PCCMs) in São Paulo, Brazil—a country that both hosted this year’s COP and is well-positioned to shape the next phase of global carbon markets by leveraging its experience in nature-based solutions.

Summaries by Gautam Jain, Preetha Jenarthan, Victoria Barreto Vieira do Prado + 3 more • December 04, 2025
Regulatory Progress for Project-Based Carbon Credit Markets: Pre-COP30 Roundtable Summary
See All Work
Climate Change

A Near-Term to Net Zero Alternative to the Social Cost of Carbon for Setting Carbon Prices

External Publications by Noah Kaufman & Peter Marsters • August 17, 2020