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Columbia Energy Exchange

U.S.-China Trade Deal: What’s Really In It for Energy Trade?

After going on for nearly two years, the Trump administration’s trade war with China has taken a new turn with a so-called phase-one agreement. Among the terms of the deal is China’s pledge to buy about $200 billion more in U.S. goods over the next two years, including $52.4 billion in U. S. energy goods. Now, as the ink dries on the document, some ask if those energy sales are likely to happen.

In this edition of Columbia Energy Exchange, host Bill Loveless visits with Dr. Erica Downs, a Senior Research Scholar at the Center who specializes in Chinese energy markets and geopolitics. Erica is a former Senior Research Scientist in the China Studies division of the CNA Corp. Among her other credentials, she was an Analyst at the Eurasia Group, the Brookings Institution and the Central Intelligence Agency.

Bill caught up with Erica soon after President Trump signed the agreement with China at the White House to get her take on its implications, especially as it relates to U.S.- China energy trade, which had looked promising until trade troubles between Washington and Beijing erupted. She also provides fascinating insight on China’s oil and gas industry, which has recently made self-reliance a major commitment, and explains why Russia has a lot to gain now as an oil and gas supplier to China.

In preparing for the conversation, Bill found very helpful a paper Erica wrote for the Center on Global Energy Policy in the fall called “High Anxiety: The Trade War and China’s Oil and Gas Supply Security.” If you have a minute, download it from the center’s website. It’s worth a look.

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Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA

Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55× in the past decade (2014–2024) and 6× since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle–grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs. Electric vehicles are increasingly adopted in the USA, with concurrent expansion of charging infrastructure and electricity demand. This Review details these trends and discusses their drivers and broader implications.

External Publications with Pierpaolo Cazzola Nature • October 09, 2025
Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA
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